Poland’s Orka Submarine Procurement: Strategic Choices in the Baltic

A Turning Point for the Polish Navy

Poland is on the cusp of one of its most significant defence acquisitions in decades. On 16 September 2025, Prime Minister Donald Tusk confirmed that the government would approve the long-awaited Orka submarine programme before the year is out. The aim is to procure a new fleet of modern submarines to fill a dangerous gap in capability and strengthen NATO’s position in the Baltic.

The Capability Gap

The urgency behind Orka stems from the state of Poland’s submarine fleet. Today, the navy relies on a single Soviet-era Kilo-class submarine, ORP Orzeł, which has been plagued by frequent repairs. The last of the Norwegian-built Kobben-class boats were retired in 2021, leaving Warsaw effectively without a credible undersea deterrent. The Baltic Sea, with its shallow waters and growing vulnerability since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, makes the absence of modern submarines a strategic liability.

The Contenders

Several international players have lined up with competing offers. Germany’s ThyssenKrupp Marine Systems is presenting designs from its Type 212 family, while Italy’s Fincantieri has strengthened its bid through a memorandum of understanding with Polska Grupa Zbrojeniowa (PGZ). Sweden’s Saab is promoting its advanced A26 Blekinge-class, also tied to PGZ industrial cooperation. France’s Naval Group has offered the Scorpène-class submarine, with commitments to technology transfer and local build. South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean has entered the contest with its KSS-III design, accompanied by an unusual financing package to ease procurement costs.

Industrial Cooperation and Sovereignty

Poland’s insistence on local industrial involvement is shaping the competition. Each bidder has signed cooperation agreements with PGZ, pledging not only job creation but also long-term sustainment within Poland. This reflects Warsaw’s broader approach to defence modernisation, ensuring that major procurements bolster national industry, skills, and strategic independence.

Regional Dynamics

The decision will also carry major regional implications. Partnering with Germany or Sweden would consolidate interoperability in the Baltic, where NATO members are aligning anti-submarine capabilities to deter Russian activity. Choosing France would align Poland with a blue-water partner offering advanced technology, while a South Korean selection would reflect Warsaw’s growing embrace of Asian defence suppliers, following previous land systems purchases. Each option signals a different balance of diplomacy, strategy, and industry.

Timelines and Training Challenges

Even if Poland signs contracts before the end of 2025, new submarines will take several years to deliver. In the meantime, the navy will need to rely on training pipelines, simulators, and potentially interim arrangements to maintain operational competence. Government statements already suggest that training infrastructure will form an early part of the package.

More than Procurement

The Orka programme represents a strategic decision on how Poland positions itself within Europe’s security framework, how it balances industrial sovereignty with alliance interoperability, and how it prepares for an increasingly unstable maritime environment. The coming weeks will determine not only the future shape of Poland’s navy but also the broader contours of its regional partnerships.

Sources:

Reuters – Poland will decide on submarine procurement this week, PM says

https://www.reuters.com/world/poland-will-decide-submarine-procurement-this-week-pm-says-2025-09-16