As the 2024 US presidential race accelerates, European policymakers are quietly bracing for a familiar adversary. Donald Trump, poised for a possible return to the White House, is widely expected to bring with him the same confrontational stance on trade and regulation that defined his previous term. This time, however, the battleground may be digital, and Europe’s deep reliance on American tech giants places it in a uniquely vulnerable position.
US Control Over European Cloud Infrastructure
At the heart of the issue lies Europe’s dependence on a handful of dominant US cloud providers, namely Amazon Web Services (AWS), Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud, which collectively command over 70% of the EU’s cloud market. These platforms power not only private business operations, but also government services, health systems, and defence infrastructure across Europe.
This reliance gives Washington a powerful, if implicit, strategic lever: the ability to disrupt or pressure European digital infrastructure through extraterritorial laws, export controls, or retaliatory actions under US jurisdiction. The US CLOUD Act (2018) already enables American authorities to demand access to data stored overseas by US companies, raising sovereignty and privacy concerns in Europe.
A Brewing Trade and Regulatory Dispute
Tensions are likely to escalate if Trump challenges the EU’s increasingly assertive digital regulation agenda. Brussels has enacted a series of landmark laws, the Digital Markets Act (DMA), Digital Services Act (DSA), AI Act, and Data Act, designed to rein in Big Tech and reassert EU digital sovereignty. These regulations introduce stricter obligations on platform behaviour, algorithmic transparency, and market dominance.
Under a second Trump presidency, these regulations could be interpreted as protectionist measures that unfairly target American firms. Trump has already hinted that he sees EU enforcement actions as discriminatory “taxation” on US companies. His administration could use this as justification to impose punitive tariffs on EU goods or pressure Brussels to roll back or soften its regulatory framework during trade talks.
The US Trade Representative (USTR) has historically opposed unilateral digital taxes and similar regulations from trading partners. In 2021, during Biden’s term, it investigated and threatened retaliatory tariffs on EU countries considering such measures. Trump, who is far less inclined toward diplomatic compromise, would likely intensify these pressures.
Europe’s Strategic Dilemma
For the EU, the conundrum is clear: assert regulatory control over its digital markets or maintain fragile transatlantic economic stability. The stakes are enormous. In a worst-case scenario, a Trump administration could:
- Target EU digital legislation in trade negotiations.
- Weaponise tariffs against European goods and services.
- Exploit Europe’s cloud dependency as leverage.
- Curtail transatlantic data transfers, reviving the instability seen after the invalidation of Safe Harbour and Privacy Shield.
At the same time, Europe remains ill-prepared to stand fully on its own. Efforts like Gaia-X, a European initiative to build a federated, sovereign cloud framework, have stalled amid governance disputes and sluggish investment. The European Commission has called for €300 billion in digital transformation investment by 2030, but actual deployment remains patchy and fragmented.
The Role of the Transatlantic Data Privacy Framework
In 2023, the EU and US agreed to a new Transatlantic Data Privacy Framework, designed to restore legal certainty for cross-border data flows. It replaced the invalidated Privacy Shield, which the Court of Justice of the EU struck down over concerns that US surveillance laws did not adequately protect European citizens’ data.
While this framework has helped stabilise relations for now, it remains vulnerable to legal challenges, particularly if the US adopts more aggressive surveillance or enforcement tactics under a Trump-led administration. A return to legal limbo over data transfers could severely disrupt digital trade, especially for SMEs relying on US-based infrastructure.
Towards European Digital Sovereignty?
Europe has recognised the long-term risks of digital dependency. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly called for a stronger, more autonomous digital Europe. Key strategic objectives include:
- Diversifying cloud and data infrastructure, with support for EU providers.
- Building interoperable digital public services across the EU.
- Investing in next-generation technologies, such as quantum computing and AI, without defaulting to US standards or platforms.
However, these ambitions face real-world challenges: budgetary constraints, lack of coordination between member states, and insufficient industrial scale compared to the US or China. Without cohesive and accelerated action, the EU may find itself unable to resist external pressures, whether from Washington, Silicon Valley, or geopolitical competitors.
Autonomy or Concession?
The prospect of a second Trump presidency serves as a stark reminder that Europe’s digital future cannot depend on goodwill from Washington. With the DMA and other legislation under threat, and its digital infrastructure tightly interwoven with American firms, the EU must urgently decide how far it is willing to go to defend its regulatory autonomy and data sovereignty.
The window for action is closing. To avoid becoming a pawn in future trade wars, Europe must do more than legislate, it must build and invest.
Sources:
Trump can pull the plug on the internet, and Europe can’t do anything about it
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-eu-internet-europe-us-trade-war-data-cyber
EU readies retaliatory tariffs to secure better trade deal with Trump
https://www.ft.com/content/3d336a84-ac59-45ee-b857-8a01fc7cd806
Europeans seek ‘digital sovereignty’ as US tech firms embrace Trump
